“If Brentford were to sell me and make their money, I move to Madrid and it’s all good!”
Back in March, Ivan Toney told Sky Sports News his ideal summer. Keep Brentford in the Premier League – tick. Be in the mix for the Euro 2024 – tick. Win the Euros – pretty close. And then came the hope that Brentford would sell him and he would move to a top club.
That last one has not come to fruition. The only club to have made a move for him so far this summer is Al Ahli of the Saudi Pro League. Despite the riches and obvious attraction of Saudi football, it was not the level he was initially looking for.
“A year ago, he had a lot more than he has now, we thought he would go to Arsenal, but that did not happen. Chelsea have looked at him and not gone for him,” said Jamie Redknapp on Sky Sports.
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The Super Sunday pundits react after Toney was left out of the Brentford side to face Crystal Palace
Everybody knows Toney’s quality. The season before last he scored 20 Premier League goals for Brentford and even after missing most of last season due to a betting ban, he did enough to not just become part of England’s Euro 2024 squad but an important part of it too.
His impact off the bench for the Three Lions made his stock the highest it has ever been – but why has the transfer interest dried up for Toney?
Toney troubled by the transfer market?
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The Good Morning Transfers panel dissects what Brentford would look like without Toney
Just like that Madrid reference above, Toney has made no secret – publicly and privately – of his desire to move to a bigger club.
With one year left on his contract and his ban for betting a thing of the past, everyone including Toney has been expecting this summer to be the one in which he leaves. However, there are several factors moving against him having a big move.
First there is his age: the striker will be 29 during the course of the season. Big hitters such as Chelsea and Arsenal have been looking at signing younger strikers.
In the case of Arsenal in particular, it became apparent just before the window opened that they had moved away from targeting experienced players like Toney and Alexander Isak to look at someone they could develop under Mikel Arteta, such as Joshua Zirkzee, who ultimately joined Manchester United.
And anyhow, with current first-choice Kai Havertz getting 17 goal involvements in 14 matches as a centre forward for Arsenal, plus Gabriel Jesus and Eddie Nketiah still at the club, the Gunners are well-stocked in the striker department for now.
It is a similar younger profile wanted by Chelsea, who have targeted Jhon Duran and Samu Omorodion among others, while Victor Osimhen is still three years younger than Toney at 25.
Tottenham have also been targeting younger players in general and their new striker signing Dominic Solanke is two years young than Toney at 26.
Another reason is his valuation, thought to be as high as £60m to £65m, despite having only one year left on his contract. And then there are the market forces, centred around PSR rules, which has meant the interest he might expect has not been forthcoming.
Even the top clubs now prefer to sign young talent with sell-on value and on lower wages to ensure their compliance and the potential for profit in future.
It used to be that the top clubs would snap up a marquee player in his prime such as Toney – an England international – especially with one year left on his contract, even at 28 years old. But times have changed.
Toney is still on shortlists at a number of Premier League clubs, of course, and across Europe but, with one year left on his contract, he is on the horizon as a more attractive free transfer next year.
Will Toney take the Saudi option?
Certainly financially, Saudi Arabia has a big draw. The kind of money a player can earn in that league means Toney could look after himself and his family for life and the mouth-watering finances would be difficult for the striker to turn down.
The level of competition there is another matter, though.
In an ideal world, Toney would move to a top club in the Premier League or Europe, but a player can only decide between the choices he has on the table.
At the moment that is only Al Ahli – where there is strong interest in the player – or staying at Brentford until either January, or for the rest of his contract.
Toney also has to weigh up the kind of impact moving to Saudi Arabia would have on his England prospects. Jordan Henderson’s Three Lions career went on a downward spiral after he chose Al Ettifaq, even though he left the Saudi Pro League after six months to join Ajax.
That being said, Aymeric Laporte of Al Nassr started for Spain as they won Euro 2024, while Al Ittihad’s N’Golo Kante was a star performer for France, so Toney could point to those examples to justify a Saudi move.
Do Brentford even need Toney?
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Highlights from the Premier League match between Brentford and Crystal Palace
There was major concern at the Gtech Community Stadium on Sunday when Toney was surprisingly not involved for Brentford’s Premier League opener against Crystal Palace.
It meant Thomas Frank’s side were without their two first-choice strikers to start the season, with club record signing Igor Thiago out until the end of the year with a meniscus injury sustained in pre-season.
But just like they did last season, when their talisman was unavailable due to his betting ban, Brentford’s front three stepped up in his absence.
Toney’s role for Brentford surrounds good hold-up and link-up play – as well as his aerial presence – to help get his team higher up the pitch. But against Palace, Yoane Wissa played the selfless No 9 role that manager Frank likes to deploy.
The Congo forward won more fouls than anyone on the pitch against the Eagles – and while his winning goal showed Wissa’s striker instincts, his assist to set up Bryan Mbeumo showed his excellent link-up play on the day.
As for the aerial presence, no player won more balls in the air than fellow Brentford forward Kevin Schade. Of course, Brentford would love Toney to start up front, but the same game plan can still be achieved without him.
“I felt the front three made the difference today,” said Frank about Mbeumo, Wissa and Schade.
“We know Ivan is a very good player and an important player for us. Did we need another striker with five minutes to go? Maybe.
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Thomas Frank says he would have preferred the window to have shut before the start of the Premier League season, admitting he would like the Toney transfer resolved quickly
“But I knew at that stage that Wissa and Mbeumo could do the difference and I am very happy they could do that again today.”
Brentford have adapted before to losses of key players – Ollie Watkins, Said Benrahma and David Raya have been the three most notable departures in recent years.
And with their front three all performing, plus Thiago to return later this season, it looks like the Bees will adapt just fine either with or without Toney.
Where it leaves the striker, with just under two weeks of the transfer window to go, is anyone’s guess.
Sunday 25th August 4:00pm
Kick off 4:30pm
Will Ivan Toney be involved for Brentford when they travel to Liverpool, live on Sky Sports, this Sunday? Kick-off on Super Sunday is at 4.30pm
