Stocks This Week: Sell Short AutoZone

The next week is post-OPEX week (18th through the 22nd) which is close enough to the most bearish week in any year, September 19-26, up only 34% of the time. The histogram of the expected return for post-OPEX week is below. Only Friday has had a positive return since 1985. The bears are in control.

S&P 500 in Post-OPEX Week in November

reports earnings before the Tuesday opening. Cycles suggest that the report will be met with selling. Here is why. First, we analyze the daily histogram for expected return in September. Note that the 19th through the 24th has been bearish. This analysis is supported by the dynamic weekly cycle which has peaked. All five sell signals in the last year have been profitable. The technical picture is weak; the relative strength hit a high last May. The shares are likely to fall to $2400 this week.

AutoZone September Daily Histogram

AutoZone Weekly Cycle

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