PL Predictions: Everton set to shock sleepy Spurs

Our football betting expert Jones Knows is back to provide his insight and best angles on every Premier League game and tips up a 12/1 treble.

Brighton vs Manchester United, Saturday 12.30pm

Tony Bloom and his motley crew of football data gurus and administrators have conjured up more magic haven’t they?

Going by Brighton’s pre-season and demolition job on Everton, Bloom is building another football team to punch above their weight, led by a richly talented coach in Fabian Hurzeler.

One big change to their style of play from Roberto De Zerbi was their ability to catch Everton offside by playing a high-line. This is a betting angle to exploit as the markets haven’t caught up to this trend. They played a very aggressive offside trap that already looks to be working a treat as Everton were flagged offside seven times in the 3-0 defeat.

The Manchester United total offside lines are certainly worth a look where you can get 6/4 with Sky Bet on United being flagged four or more times.

SCORE PREDICTION: 3-1

Crystal Palace vs West Ham, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

Even though the underlying data and performance metrics didn’t showcase Crystal Palace in a positive light in their defeat to Brentford, I thought they were very impressive in the first half.

Up until Bryan Mbeumo’s goal, which was the Bees’ first shot of the match, Palace were playing some great stuff without possessing that killer final action to generate any meaningful chance creation statistics.

They might struggle to put teams away at times this season but Oliver Glasner’s style of football is going to win Palace plenty of points and this looks like a good time to play West Ham, who are going to need a bit of time to settle under Julen Lopetegui. The 11/10 with Sky Bet for a home win, something Palace have achieved in their last four games at Selhurst Park scoring 16 goals in the process, looks a shade of value.

SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1

Fulham vs Leicester, Saturday 3pm

Not enough was made about how resolute and organised Leicester were against a very vibrant attacking outfit in Tottenham.

Yes, Steve Cooper’s team were limited and stale going forward for the majority of the game, but to restrict Spurs to just 1.18 worth of expected goals and just two shots on target in the second half does bode well for their chances of being tough to beat this season.

Fulham may find that out here in what Cooper will try to turn into a dire game. Marco Silva’s attackers are an unreliable bunch having scored more than once in just two of their last nine Premier League games across the campaigns, and although they came out with credit in the 1-0 loss at Manchester United they only created 0.44 worth of expected goals.

This game just screams under 2.5 goals at the prices, where Evens is on offer with Sky Bet.

SCORE PREDICTION: 0-0

Manchester City vs Ipswich, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

Both teams to score at 5/4 with Sky Bet is just begging to be backed.

Ipswich aren’t going to try and low-block their way to a result. As they showed in the first half against Liverpool last weekend, they will press high and aggressively when the time is right and play with a proactive nature when in transition.

This is a team that have scored in 18 of their last 21 matches.

City’s defence has become more vulnerable in recent seasons, especially at home. Last season they conceded at least once in 13 of their 19 home matches, including to bottom-half teams likes Luton, Wolves, Burnley and Fulham.

They will give Ipswich opportunities to exploit space – like they did at Chelsea last weekend where although the final 20 minutes was a procession, the Londoners did create 1.01 worth of expected goals and were only a reliable finisher away from making a game of it.

SCORE PREDICTION: 4-1 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Both teams to score (5/4 with Sky Bet – part of 12/1 weekend treble!)

Southampton vs Nottingham Forest, Saturday 3pm

The opening weekend swam against the tide of last season when it came to goals.

There was a 3.26 goals per game last season, beating the previous best of 2.85.

Yet all 10 matches went under 3.5 goals on Matchday One with under 2.5 punters turning a big level stakes profit as seven games saw fewer than three goals scored.

That trend is unlikely to continue as teams and players find full rhythm and fitness but I do think a regression is coming in terms of average goals due to the added-on time situation. Last season there was an average of 11.38 minutes added on per game, over three minutes per game more than in any previous season. Late goals in that period of extra play had a huge impact on that average goal count.

However, there was just 10.1 added on across the 10 matches last weekend so less football should help keep the goal average to a more consistent level with what we’ve seen historically.

This could be a game that gets swallowed up by the unders line as the draw looks a big runner with Evens on offer for under 2.5 rating as an interesting proposition.

SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1

Tottenham vs Everton, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

I can’t be having Tottenham here at 4/9 with Sky Bet.

That is awfully skinny considering the amount of problems Everton gave Spurs last season over their two Premier League encounters. When Ange Postecoglou gets a team purring they are capable of great things but I was surprised how lacklustre and unthreatening they were at Leicester. And if they’re not scoring two or more goals in a game, their style of football always gives the opposition a chance of a result – as it does for Everton here.

Sean Dyche’s gameplan saw the Toffees create 4.4 worth of expected goals and post 13 shots on target across the two Premier League games against Spurs, that ended 2-2 and 2-1 to Postecoglou’s side.

Everton were very unfortunate not to win both matches based on the underlying data. Stylistically, both teams will be shaping up with the same footballing mantra, so the market is sleeping on a pro-Everton result, especially with how Dyche is going to target Tottenham’s clear weakness from set-pieces.

I make the 7/4 with Sky Bet on the Toffees to avoid defeat one of the bets of the weekend.

SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Everton double chance (7/4 with Sky Bet – part of 12/1 weekend treble)

Aston Villa vs Arsenal, Saturday 5.30pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

Aston Villa cost Arsenal the Premier League title last season. Mikel Arteta’s team amassed 89 points, getting within two points of Manchester City but took zero points from a possible six against Villa and failed to even score.

There could be an added edge to Arsenal and their approach for this tricky trip. A win at Villa Park would be a huge statement of intent.

Can they do it? Certainly.

Are they a betting proposition at 4/5 with Sky Bet? I can let them win at those odds.

Saturday 24th August 5:00pm


Kick off 5:30pm

The fouls markets have triggered my interest.

Only Spurs (261) won more fouls than Villa (256) last season in home matches and West Ham committed 18 fouls against them on the opening weekend as the attacking trio of Ollie Watkins, Leon Bailey and Morgan Rogers are very smart at winning free-kicks.

When you throw Ezri Konsa (1.87 fouls won per 90) and John McGinn (2.06 fouls won per 90) into the mix, along with what could be a heated encounter considering the recent history, then backing Arsenal players to make fouls rates as a smart play.

The way I’d play it would be to combine Declan Rice, William Saliba and Gabriel all to make at least one foul through the Bet Builder to result in a juicy 11/4 shot with Sky Bet to cheer on.

SCORE PREDICTION: 0-1

Bournemouth vs Newcastle, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

Sunday 25th August 1:00pm


Kick off 2:00pm

The markets don’t give enough respect to Bournemouth.

Yes, the sale of Dominic Solanke will make their life more problematic in front of goal but as a unit, Andoni Iraola has built one of the most organised defensive outfits in the Premier League. Since beating Newcastle 2-0 in November, their expected goals against per 90 record at home of just 1.04 is the fourth best home record of any team.

They are such a difficult team to create quality chances against – mostly down to their exceptional work without the ball.

Newcastle still have questions to answer regarding the expectation that without the extra fixtures they can return to the levels we saw in the 22/23 season. They dug-in against Saints last weekend with 10-men but did struggle to find any rhythm even before the sending off, so I’d be lukewarm about their chances of taking three points against a very difficult team to break down. The 2/1 with Sky Bet on a home win looks more than fair and the 8/11 for the Cherries to avoid defeat is one of the best bets on the card.

SCORE PREDICTION: 1-0 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Bournemouth double chance (8/11 with Sky Bet – part of weekend 12/1 treble!)

Wolves vs Chelsea, Sunday 2pm

Wolves have forgotten how to win football matches, winning just once in their last 12 matches across the campaigns in all competitions.

That victory came against relegated Luton too, where they only created 0.42 worth of expected goals. Gary O’Neil has to arrest this dismal run otherwise relegation threat will become a problem.

This game screams slow burner. Enzo Maresca showed at Leicester last season he doesn’t like taking risks early on in a game and is all about control. In 23 away games last season, his Leicester side kept 16 first half clean sheets – a 70 per cent strike rate. Meanwhile, Wolves, who can be very toothless in attack, only scored nine first half goals in their 19 home matches last season. The 0-0 half time correct score is simply too big at 5/2 with Sky Bet.

SCORE PREDICTION: 0-2

Liverpool vs Brentford, Sunday 4.30pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

I’m not sure the 4/1 with Sky Bet about Dominik Szoboszlai scoring will be available once the Arne Slot regime really kicks into gear. The Hungarian looks exactly the type of goalscoring midfielder that Slot wants to help his front three and the signs were positive against Ipswich where he has three shots and posted four touches in the opposition box.

This game should present Szoboszlai with opportunities to let fly from range – something he loves to do.

Only Bruno Fernandes (37) has had more shots from outside the box since the start of last season than Szoboszlai (31). Brentford’s tactic of defending deep and keeping very narrow with their defensive blocks means shots from range are fired at a huge rate. The 456 shots from outside the box they’ve conceded at an average of 5.92 per game is the most of any Premier League team to have played more than 37 games in that period.

Szoboszlai to score from outside the box at 11/1 with Sky Bet is a runner.

SCORE PREDICTION: 2-0

Jones Knows’ best bets…

1pt treble on Everton to win or draw vs Tottenham, Bournemouth to win or draw vs Newcastle & BTTS in Man City vs Ipswich (12/1 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)