Ray White Group Senior Data Analyst, Atom Go Tian, said that the national median house price has remained steady over the past two years, currently sitting at $790,000 within a stable range of $750,000-$801,000.
“After a period of volatility, the national median house price has settled within a consistent band for the last two years,” Mr Tian said.
“Buyers across the country now benefit from increased housing options, with available listings rising 10.9 per cent to 36,870 properties nationwide.”
Mr Tian said improved stock levels provides prospective homeowners with more choices and negotiating power than they’ve experienced in recent years.
“This creates opportunities for first-time buyers who previously struggled to enter the market during periods of limited inventory,” he said.
Regional performance varies significantly despite the national trend showing a slight 1.4 per cent year-on-year decrease in prices.
“The West Coast Region leads with an impressive 11.5 per cent price increase, demonstrating strong demand in the most affordable region of the country,” Mr Tian said.
“Other regions showing healthy price appreciation include Southland (5.6 per cent), Tasman (4.2 per cent), and Gisborne (4 per cent), indicating that areas offering lifestyle benefits at more accessible price points are attracting buyer interest.”
Major metropolitan centres have experienced some correction, according to the analysis, with Wellington City and Auckland City recording the largest declines at 6.2 per cent and 6 per cent, respectively.
“This rebalancing is creating more affordable entry points in previously overheated markets,” Mr Tian said.
He said that three regions have maintained stable prices including Canterbury, Taranaki, and Marlborough.
Despite these positive developments, Mr Tian warned of significant challenges on the horizon, particularly regarding changing population dynamics.
“For the year ended February 2025, annual net migration showed a gain of just 32,922 people – dramatically lower than the 113,736 recorded in the year ended February 2024, and well below the peak of 135,500 in October 2023,” he said.
“The significant slowdown in population growth paired with increasing housing supply could potentially undermine the current equilibrium if the trend continues.”
Mr Tian also pointed to external factors that could impact market stability.
“The looming impact of U.S. tariffs adds another layer of uncertainty,” he said.
“With the United States serving as New Zealand’s second-largest export market, this external pressure comes at a particularly vulnerable time.
“Lower population growth and potential economic contraction triggered by international trade disputes may test the market’s resilience in the coming months.”